Potential Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of Afrotropical Syritta species (Diptera: Syrphidae)
John Midgley  1, 2, *@  , Kurt Jordaens  3@  , Bonolo Mosime  2, 4@  
1 : Department of Zoology & Entomology, Rhodes University, Makhanda, 6139
2 : KwaZulu-Natal Museum, Pietermaritzburg, KwaZulu-Natal, 3021
3 : Royal Museum for Central Africa, Invertebrates Section, Leuvensesteenweg 13, 3080 Tervuren
4 : University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, KwaZulu-Natal, 3021
* : Corresponding author

Climate change and land-use change threatens global biodiversity. Loss of pollinators in particular could have major ecological and economic implications. Species distribution models are one tool used to assess potential impacts of climate change on species. There is little documentation on the distribution, vulnerability and conservation status of Afrotropical Syritta. In this study, 2 Syritta species' known occurrence data were used as predictors for the analysis of habitat preferences, potential shifts in species distribution and shifts in bioclimatic range within South Africa. Ensemble modelling approach based on 3 model algorithms (maximum entropy, random forest and generalized linear models) were used with 3 assessment metrics (TTS, AUC, COR) to identify the important predictor variables. The analysis shows a wide and uneven distribution across the delineated geographic regions, with rainfall and temperature expected to influence the probability of geographic distribution of Syritta in South Africa. This study is important in developing long-term regional monitoring Syritta biodiversity hotspots and potential conservation strategies.


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